A project manager is using three-point estimation to calculate the variance for a critical project activity. The optimistic estimate is 10 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 22 days. What is the variance for this activity?
2 days²
12 days²
36 days²
4 days²
The correct answer is 4 days². Variance in three-point (PERT) estimation is calculated as Variance = ((Pessimistic − Optimistic) / 6)². For this activity:
Variance = ((22 − 10) / 6)² = (12 / 6)² = 2² = 4.
Variance expresses the spread of possible outcomes around the mean in squared time units; a larger value indicates greater schedule uncertainty.
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