A project manager is using Three-Point Estimation to calculate the expected duration of a critical activity. The optimistic estimate is 10 days, the most likely estimate is 14 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 22 days. What is the expected duration (TE) of this activity?
15.33 days
16 days
14.67 days
14 days
The correct answer is 14.67 days. In Three-Point Estimation, the expected duration (TE) is calculated using the formula: TE = (Optimistic + 4 x Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6. Plugging in the values from the question:
TE = (10 + 4 x 14 + 22) / 6 TE = (10 + 56 + 22) / 6 TE = 88 / 6 TE = 14.67 days
This method gives more weight to the most likely estimate, providing a balanced approach to estimation that considers both best-case and worst-case scenarios. It's important to note that the result is often rounded to two decimal places in practice, but the exact calculation is provided here for clarity.
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