A project manager is using Three-Point Estimation to calculate the expected duration of an activity. The optimistic estimate is 10 days, the most likely estimate is 15 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 28 days. What is the expected duration (TE) of the activity?
18 days
16.33 days
15 days
17.67 days
The correct answer is 16.33 days. In Three-Point Estimation, the expected duration (TE) is calculated using the formula: TE = (Optimistic + 4 x Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6. Plugging in the values from the question:
TE = (10 + 4 x 15 + 28) / 6 TE = (10 + 60 + 28) / 6 TE = 98 / 6 TE = 16.33 days
This formula gives more weight to the most likely estimate, which is typically the most accurate. The optimistic and pessimistic estimates help account for uncertainty and potential risks in the activity duration. It's important to note that this method provides a more realistic estimate than simply using the most likely estimate alone, as it considers both best-case and worst-case scenarios.
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