A project manager is using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to estimate the duration for a critical activity. The optimistic estimate is 3 days, the most likely estimate is 5 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 13 days. What is the expected duration (TE) for this activity?
To calculate the expected duration (TE) using the three-point PERT formula, you use a weighted average that gives more weight to the most likely estimate. The formula is:
TE = (Optimistic + 4 × Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6
Plugging in the given values:
TE = (3 + (4 × 5) + 13) / 6
TE = (3 + 20 + 13) / 6
TE = 36 / 6
TE = 6 days
Therefore, the expected duration for the activity is 6 days. The other options represent common miscalculations, such as using a simple average or choosing the most likely value.
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