A project manager is using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to develop a schedule for a complex project with high uncertainty. As part of this process, they need to calculate the variance for a specific activity to understand its potential risk. The formula for an activity's variance is the square of the standard deviation. Which formula correctly represents the standard deviation component of this calculation?
The correct formula for calculating the standard deviation in PERT is (Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6. The variance is the square of this value: ((P - O) / 6)². This formula is based on the beta distribution, where the range between the pessimistic (P) and optimistic (O) estimates is assumed to cover approximately six standard deviations (from -3 to +3 sigma). Dividing this range by 6 provides an approximation of one standard deviation. The other options are incorrect because they use the wrong denominator or the wrong estimates.
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What is the purpose of calculating variance in PERT?
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Why does PERT use a beta distribution for activity duration estimates?
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How does the (Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6 formula relate to standard deviations?
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