A project manager is using PERT to estimate the duration of a critical activity. The optimistic estimate is 4 days, the most likely estimate is 6 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 14 days. What is the expected duration (TE) of this activity?
6 days
8 days
7 days
9 days
The correct answer is 7 days. In PERT, the expected duration (TE) is calculated using the formula: TE = (Optimistic + 4 x Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6. Substituting the given values into this formula:
TE = (4 + 4 x 6 + 14) / 6 TE = (4 + 24 + 14) / 6 TE = 42 / 6 TE = 7 days
This weighted average gives more importance to the most likely estimate while considering the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. It provides a more realistic estimate of the activity duration, taking into account potential uncertainties and risks.
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