A project manager is estimating the duration of an activity. The optimistic estimate is 6 days, the most likely estimate is 10 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 20 days. Using the PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) formula, what is the expected duration of this activity?
The correct answer is calculated using the PERT formula for expected duration (TE): TE = (Optimistic + 4 × Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6.
Substituting the given values: TE = (6 + 4 × 10 + 20) / 6 TE = (6 + 40 + 20) / 6 TE = 66 / 6 = 11 days.
An answer of 12 days would be the result of using a simple average ( (6+10+20)/3 ), which is incorrect for a PERT calculation.
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