PgMP Practice Question

The manager is using trend analysis, which examines historical performance data over time, identifies patterns, and extrapolates those patterns to predict future outcomes. In this case, plotting consecutive CV values and extending the trend line forecasts the likely cost variance at program completion.

• Variance analysis compares actual results to the baseline at a single point in time but does not project future performance.
• Root-cause analysis seeks to identify why a variance occurred rather than predicting future values.
• Monte Carlo simulation evaluates many probabilistic scenarios but is not required simply to extend an observed trend.