A training group is analyzing enrollment data from the past two years to forecast attendance for the next quarter. Leadership wants to set realistic growth targets. Which method describes how to use past figures effectively while aiming for plausible growth?
Summarize the monthly enrollments across the entire set, observe any consistent trends, and apply those for the next quarter
Select the month with smaller enrollment numbers and continue to utilize that figure as the forecast going forward
Use a single historically strong month and treat that value as the repeated estimate for the next months
Focus on the first portion of the data set for simplicity, placing limited emphasis on the remainder
Summarizing a broad range of past enrollment data, identifying a consistent pattern, and projecting future expectations based on that analysis results in a more balanced and reliable forecast. The other answers rely on single data points or partial data segments, which can distort projections and lead to unrealistic or narrow forecasting.
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What statistical methods can be used to identify trends in enrollment data?
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Why is it important to summarize a broad range of past data instead of focusing on a single month?
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What are the potential risks of using small data segments for forecasting?